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15.05.2013 14:15

European session: the dollar has increased significantly

Data

01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) April -0.6% -1.6%

01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) April +4.5% +3.3%

01:30 Australia Wage Price Index, q/q Quarter I +0.8% +0.8% +0.7%

01:30 Australia Wage Price Index, y/y Quarter I +3.4% +3.3% +3.2%

05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence April 44.8 45.8 44.5

05:30 France GDP, q/q (Preliminary) Quarter I -0.2% -0.1% -0.2%

05:30 France GDP, Y/Y (Preliminary) Quarter I -0.3% -0.4% -0.4%

06:00 Germany GDP (QoQ) (Preliminary) Quarter I -0.6% +0.3% +0.1%

06:00 Germany GDP (wda) (YoY) (Preliminary) Quarter I +0.1% +0.2% -0.2%

06:45 France CPI, m/m April +0.8% +0.1% -0.1%

06:45 France CPI, y/y April +1.0% +0.9% +0.8%

07:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, m/m April 0.0% -0.2% +0.2%

07:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, y/y April -0.3% -0.3% -0.1%

08:30 United Kingdom Average earnings ex bonuses, 3 m/y March +1.0% +0.8% +0.8%

08:30 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate March 7.9% 7.9% 7.8%

08:30 United Kingdom Average Earnings, 3m/y March +0.8% +0.7% +0.4%

08:30 United Kingdom Claimant count April -7.0 -3.1 -7.3

08:30 United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate April 4.6% 4.6% 4.5%

09:00 Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (Preliminary) Quarter I -0.6% -0.1% -0.2%

09:00 Eurozone GDP (YoY) (Preliminary) Quarter I -0.9% -0.9% -1.0%

09:00 Switzerland Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations) May 20.0 25.0 2.2

09:30 United Kingdom BOE Inflation Letter Quarter II

09:30 United Kingdom BOE Gov King Speaks


Value of the dollar rose sharply against the euro, which was primarily due to the publication of data on GDP growth in the euro zone.

Note that the Statistical Office of Germany said that the country's economy was surprisingly weak in the beginning of the year, because of "the extremely inhospitable weather," as well as the decline in exports and a reduction in investment. As it became known that the gross domestic product in the first quarter grew by 0.1% qoq or 0.4% year on year, after a short and sharp decline in the fourth quarter. Statistical Office also revised downwards its GDP data for the fourth quarter. German GDP fell by 0.7% in the fourth quarter, down from its initial estimate of 0.6% contraction. The data were adjusted for inflation and seasonal variations into account, as well as the number of working days in each quarter. Economists note that strong private consumption is likely to save Germany from the recession.

At the same time, other data, which were released today by the National Statistics Institute Insee, showed that the French economy contracted in the last quarter, topping with the forecasts of experts, which was associated with weak demand in the country and abroad.

According to the report, in the first quarter of the gross domestic product of France fell by 0.2%, compared with an upwardly revised decrease from the previous quarter at 0.2%.

Note that according to the average estimate of economists, the economy has been reduced by 0.1%, compared with a fall of 0.3% in the 4th quarter, which was originally reported.

In addition, it was reported that on an annualized basis, GDP declined by 0.4%, which is fully in line with experts' forecasts.

In the Statistics Bureau reported that most of the major components of GDP showed a significant weakness, but the major contribution to reducing the consumption of households have (fell 0.1%), business investment (down 0.8%) and exports (down to 0 , 5%).

Note also that the domestic demand, with the exception of changes to business inventories, reduced GDP growth by 0.1 percentage points, while the change in inventories added 0.1 points, while the foreign trade of GDP dropped by 0.2 points.

The British pound retreated from the maximum values ​​of the session against the dollar, dropping at the same to the lowest values ​​of the session. Note that initially contributed to the growth of currency latest data, which were presented by the Office of National, and showed that by the end of last month the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell substantially, thereby exceeded the estimates of experts that contributed to the decline in the unemployment rate.

According to the report, the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell in April for 7300 people to the level of 1.52 million, followed a decline of 7,000 in the previous month. Note that according to the average forecast of economists, the number of applications was reduced to only 3,100 people. In addition, it was reported that in the context of the significantly lower the unemployment rate also fell - to the level of 4.5 percent, while the forecast, it was to remain unchanged - at 4.6 percent.

In the period from January to March, the unemployment rate in the ILO standards, amounted to 7.8 percent of the economically active population, up 0.1 percentage points lower than that from October to December. Note that it is estimated that the unemployment rate would remain unchanged.

However, strengthening the currency did not last long, and after the publication of the quarterly inflation report, the rate has declined markedly. Note that the Bank of England expects that inflation in Britain could rise above 3% in June, and that it may be above 2% in the next 2 years.

As for GDP, it "may gradually grow over the next three years through a program of asset purchases, mitigating conditions in the credit market by lending and financing programs to further stabilize the world economy." MPC of the Bank of England expects GDP growth of 0.3% in Q1. Of 2013. In the current quarter, GDP should grow by 0.5%, while the annual growth should reach 2.2% (versus 2% previously). However, the MPC acknowledged that growth is still "weak and uneven."

This report shows that, in the light of the forecasts for inflation and growth may require additional incentives. Prior to 2016, however, the rate increase is expected.

After the release of the report, Bank of England held a press conference. He noted that there are many obstacles to the growth of the British economy, and most importantly - the eurozone crisis and rising unemployment. He stressed that the policy of the United States should continue to stimulate the economy, because "now is not relaxed."



EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair dropped to $ 1.2841

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.5271, then dropped to $ 1.5174

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y102.74


At 12:30 GMT Canada will announce the change of volume of manufacturing sales in March, and will be released in the U.S. producer price index for April and the Empire Manufacturing manufacturing index for May. At 13:00 GMT Canada are data on changes in the volume of home sales in the secondary market in April and in the U.S. - a report on the net amount of long-term purchases of U.S. securities by foreign investors and the total net volume of purchases of U.S. securities by foreign investors in March. At 13:15 GMT the United States will be released capacity utilization rate for April, and data on changes in the volume of industrial production in April. At 14:30 GMT the United States, there are data on stocks of crude oil from the Ministry of Energy. At 22:30 GMT New Zealand will introduce the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of Business NZ in April. End the day at 23:50 GMT Japan provisional data on the change in GDP, as well as changes in the volume of GDP (year), nominal GDP and the GDP deflator for the 1st quarter.

15.05.2013 14:00

Orders

Market Focus

  • ECB's Weidmann says first ECB rate hike could follow the end of QE more closely than in the U.S
  • Industrial producer prices rose by 0.1% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.2% in the EU28
  • European Commission forecasts Euro Zone inflation will accelerate to 1.6 pct y/y in 2019 from 1.5 pct y/y seen in 2018
  • UK service providers signalled a modest rebound in business activity - Markit
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