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16.05.2013 14:15

European session: the euro exchange rate has recovered from lows

Data

02:00 New Zealand Annual Budget Release 2013

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Finally) March +0.2% +0.2% +0.9%

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (Finally) March -7.3% -6.7%

06:45 France Non-Farm Payrolls (Preliminary) Quarter I -0.3% -0.3% -0.1%

09:00 Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. March 12.0 11.8 18.7

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI April +1.2% -0.1% -0.1%

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (Finally) April +1.2% +1.2% +1.2%

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y April +1.5% +1.0% +1.1%

The euro exchange rate fluctuates against the dollar, approaching the maximum values ​​of the session. Note that the latest data published by Statistics Eurostat, the trade surplus Eurozone has increased markedly in March, being at the same time by more than two times higher than in the previous month. We also add that this was the highest value since records began in 1999, which was due to a sharp increase in exports and decrease imports. According to experts, the high export figures give some hope that the eurozone may soon return to growth after a prolonged reduction, and suggests that the decline recorded in the first quarter, was associated with a very weak domestic demand. According to the report, the unadjusted trade surplus rose in March to a level of 22.9 billion euros, compared with 10.1 billion euros in February. Recall that in March 2012 the surplus was 6.9 billion euros. In addition, it was reported that the seasonally adjusted surplus in merchandise trade rose to the level of 18.7 billion euros, compared with a surplus of 12.7 billion euros in the previous month, which was revised up from 12 billion euro. According to experts, the surplus was $ 11.8 billion. In addition, the data showed that the volume of exports of the euro zone rose to a seasonally adjusted 2.8 per cent compared with February. At the same time, the volume of imports fell by 1 percent. Note that a further report, which was submitted to Eurostat showed that the annualized rate of inflation in the euro area declined in April to 1.2 percent from 1.7 percent in March. On a monthly basis, inflation declined to 0.1 percent, in line with economists' forecasts. Core inflation, which excludes prices of energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, fell to 1 percent from 1.5 percent a month earlier. In the EU27, the annual inflation rate was 1.4 percent, down from 1.9 percent in March. The lowest rates were observed in Greece, Latvia and Sweden, while Romania showed the highest values.

The yen declined significantly against the dollar, even though the publication of better-than-expected data. Data released by the Japanese government show that qoq economy grew by 0.9% in the period from January to March, while year - by 3.5%, which is the best result among the G-7. This improvement is also the result of increasing the volume of private consumption (+0.9% in Q1 this year) versus 0.4% in the previous quarter, as well as personal expenses, which increased by 0.6%, slightly less than in the last quarter of 2012. In addition, the fall of the yen to boost exports, which marked an increase of 3.8% compared to -2.9% in the period October-December 2012.

Experts note that the result of the monetary incentive, launched by the Japanese Prime Minister Abe, as well as the Bank of Japan, also known as "Abenomika" were two quarters of economic growth. They also add that Abenomiki continued success depends on whether the Japanese government implements the planned steps. In January, the government announced a major expansion of the leniency program (10 trillion. Yen), the Central Bank raised its target mark on inflation to 2%. In April, the Bank announced a doubling of the size of the QE program to 270 bln. yen by the end of 2014, "and the next step will be the presentation of a new strategy for growth, planned for June.


EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair dropped to $ 1.2845, but then rose $ 1.2886

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair dropped to $ 1.5195, after which rose to $ 1.5244

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y102.68


At 12:30 GMT Canada is to publish data on the volume of transactions with foreign securities in March. Also this time the U.S. will report the volume of building permits issued and the number of Housing Starts in April and present the consumer price index and core consumer price index for April. At 14:00 GMT the United States will Fed manufacturing index for May Philadelphia. At 22:45 GMT New Zealand will release the Producer Price Index and the Producer Price Index for Q1. At 23:50 GMT Japan will report on changes in the volume of mortgage lending in Q1 and the change in the volume of orders for machinery and equipment in March.

16.05.2013 14:00

Orders

Market Focus

  • ECB's Weidmann says first ECB rate hike could follow the end of QE more closely than in the U.S
  • Industrial producer prices rose by 0.1% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.2% in the EU28
  • European Commission forecasts Euro Zone inflation will accelerate to 1.6 pct y/y in 2019 from 1.5 pct y/y seen in 2018
  • UK service providers signalled a modest rebound in business activity - Markit
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