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30.05.2013 14:15

European session: the euro exchange rate back to the lows

Data

01:30 Australia Private Capital Expenditure Quarter I -1.2% +0.7% -4.7%

01:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m April -5.5% +4.1% +9.1%

01:30 Australia Building Permits, y/y April +3.9% +22.5% +27.3%

05:45 Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) Quarter I +0.2% +0.2% +0.6%

05:45 Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (YoY) Quarter I +1.4% +1.0% +1.1%

06:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index May 0.0% +0.5% +0.4%

06:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index, y/y May +0.9% +0.9% +1.1%

09:00 Eurozone Business climate indicator May -0.93 -0.85 -0.76

09:00 Eurozone Economic sentiment index May 88.6 89.4 89.4

09:00 Eurozone Industrial confidence May -13.8 -13.0 -13.0


Value of the dollar rose sharply against the euro, which has happened in the last couple of hours, but in spite of this, the European currency is still trading on the rise.

It should be noted that the first half of the day on the dynamics of trade affected by the data from the European Commission, which showed that businesses and consumers in 17 countries of the euro area were less pessimistic about their prospects, showing a first improving sentiment in February, although this increase is unlikely to herald a significant rise of economic growth in the coming months.

According to the report, in May, the index of sentiment in the economy, which integrates research businesses and consumers across the euro zone, rose to 89.4, up from 88.6 in April, which is fully consistent with forecasts of experts. Add that, and recent surveys of purchasing managers also forced to assume that the economic downturn in the euro zone may be less in the second quarter. If this growth continues, the growth in confidence will lead to increased spending by consumers and businesses, which will also contribute to a return to growth at the end of this year. However, it is worth noting that the index of sentiment in the economy remains below the average of 100.00 since 1990.

The European Commission also reported that the increase in confidence was distributed by the largest economies of the eurozone: the greatest increase was seen in Italy and the Netherlands. Slovakia and Finland were the only countries-members of the euro zone, which recorded a loss of confidence.

However, despite the early growth, the euro is losing ground against the expected publication of U.S. GDP data and the number of initial claims for unemployment insurance.

The Australian dollar retreated from earlier reached the maximum values ​​at the same time approaching to session lows. It should be noted that the dynamics of trade have influenced the data, which were published today by Statistics Australia. As it became known, last month the number of building permits rose 0.4 percent in March after declining by 1.2 percent. It is also worth noting that the seasonally adjusted in April, the number of building permits rose 9.1 percent after falling 5.5 percent in March.

In addition, the data showed that the number of permits for the construction of private homes increased by 1 percent, which was the fifth consecutive monthly increase. With seasonal correction in April, the number of building permits for private homes rose 2.5 per cent, registering a fourth consecutive monthly increase. The number of building permits without homes rose in April to 18.0 percent, after falling 9.9 percent in March. In seasonally adjusted number of building permits without homes fell by 8.3 percent, after rising 1.3 percent the previous month. Cost approved for construction of facilities has increased in April by 1.2 percent, which was the 15-month increase in a row. The cost of approved homes rose 0.1 percent after declining for three months. The cost of approved non-residential buildings increased by 2.7 per cent, showing a sixth consecutive monthly increase.

The yen has fallen sharply, despite growth in early trading. Some attribute this momentum with the message that the Japanese public pension fund is considering changes to its portfolio management strategy to allow investment in Japanese stocks rise along with the growing market. It may have only a consequence of the recently observed a strong correlation between the index and the Nikkei pair dollar / yen. This is not exactly a new strategy of Japanese investors, but given the high profile given to the correlation between the yen and the Nikkei index at the present time, it makes sense. According to analysts, a maximum of 101.45 reached before the current session will be the next resistance above which placed stop orders.


EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.3007, and then fell to $ 1.2939

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.5196, but later fell to $ 1.5111

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y101.81


At 12:30 GMT Canada will announce the balance of the current account of balance of payments for the 1st quarter and the index of commodity prices for April. Also, this time in the U.S. are refined data on GDP growth in Q1, the GDP price index for the 1st quarter, the index of personal consumption expenditures in Q1 and the main index of personal consumption expenditures in Q1. At 14:00 GMT the U.S. will report on changes in the volume of pending home sales for April. At 23:01 GMT UK release indicator from GfK consumer confidence for May. At 23:30 GMT Japan will announce to the change in the level of household spending in April, and will release the consumer price index for May and Tokyo Consumer Price Index for April. At 23:50 GMT Japan will be released preliminary data on industrial production for April.

30.05.2013 14:00

Orders

Market Focus

  • ECB's Weidmann says first ECB rate hike could follow the end of QE more closely than in the U.S
  • Industrial producer prices rose by 0.1% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.2% in the EU28
  • European Commission forecasts Euro Zone inflation will accelerate to 1.6 pct y/y in 2019 from 1.5 pct y/y seen in 2018
  • UK service providers signalled a modest rebound in business activity - Markit
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