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11.06.2013 14:15

European session: the euro exchange rate is traded upward


00:00 China Bank holiday

01:30 Australia Home Loans April +5.2% +2.1% +0.8%

01:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence May -2 -1

03:00 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%

03:00 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement

05:45 Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts Quarter III

07:15 Japan BOJ Press Conference

08:00 Germany Constitutional Court Ruling

08:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (MoM) April +0.7% -0.4% +0.1%

08:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (YoY) April -1.4% -0.6% -0.6%

08:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (MoM) April +1.1% 0.0% -0.2%

08:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (YoY) April -1.4% -0.3% -0.5%

The euro rose slightly against the U.S. dollar, due to the fact that today begins a two-day session of the Federal Constitutional Court of Germany, the highest judicial body of the country. As part of the hearing the judge will appreciate the legitimacy of government bond buyback program OMT, which is the head of the European Central Bank (ECB), Mario Draghi announced in September 2012. As stated by a member of the ECB Executive Board Jörg Asmussen, a potential solution to the German court against the ECB's program to buy back government bonds could mean new risks for the single currency. The court will also consider the question of the constitutionality of eurozone stabilization fund - the European Stability Mechanism. According Y.Asmussena, when the ECB announced a program to repurchase the bonds, "the euro area was close to the uncontrolled disintegration," but OMT "showed speculators that the euro will be protected, will fight for it."

"The program was necessary from an economic point of view, acceptable from a legal point of view, and efficient from the point of view of efficiency, - says Y.Asmussen. - If it is canceled, we will face serious consequences." In this case, a board member of the ECB does not elaborate on what exactly the consequences involved. Critics of the program by the ECB in Germany, which, as the largest economy in the euro zone, the burden rests with the neighbors insist that the central bank has overstepped its authority by announcing unlimited redemption of government bonds if necessary. The condition of foreclosure was delivered recourse to the ESM.

The pound fell slightly against the U.S. dollar, despite the publication of a better-than-expected report on Britain. As shown by recent data that has been submitted by the Office for National Statistics, at the end the month of April, industrial production increased significantly with the slowing pace compared to the previous month. Economists note that growth was based increase in activity in the mining sector, mineral sector, the extraction of water and disposal of waste.

According to the report, in April, the volume of industrial production increased by only 0.1%, compared with an increase of 0.7% in March and an increase of 0.9% in February. It is worth noting that according to the average forecasts of experts, industrial production was down by 0.4%. Also, the data showed that the manufacturing industries decreased April 0.2% 1.1% modifying growth that was observed in the last month. Economists had expected the figure to remain unchanged.

The Office for National Statistics also reported that on an annual basis, the decline in industrial production slowed to 0.6% from 1.4 per cent in March. In addition, it was reported that manufacturing output declined at a slower rate - by 0.5%, after falling 1.4% a month earlier.

The Japanese currency has increased significantly against the dollar, after following the meeting on June 10-11, the Bank of Japan kept its course of monetary policy unchanged, refraining from additional measures to support the economy, including the expected extension of credit operations, which it uses to reduce the volatility in the markets debt securities. Most experts expect that the Bank of Japan to adopt new credit operations of at least one year. Recall that in April of this year, the Japanese Central Bank increased its purchase of government bonds to 7 trillion yen per month. The Bank of Japan will now purchase government bonds with all maturities, including 40-year bonds, and the average maturity of government bonds to maturity on the balance sheet will be increased from 3 to 7 years. Since then, the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds rose five basis points to 0.875%, which caused concern investors. We also add that after today's meeting of the Monetary Policy Central Bank head Kuroda have on improving the state of the Japanese economy, while recognizing the existence of a high degree of uncertainty. The Bank also provided comments on the topic of excess volatility JGB, highlighting the undesirability of this fact and the intention to make efforts to limit this volatility. "In the future we will consider the possibility of extending operations with a fixed rate, if the situation requires it," - said Kuroda. The head of the Central Bank said that the monetary authority is considering easing policy, but stressed at the same time, it is still too early to assess the full impact of these measures.

The Australian dollar fell against the U.S. dollar after the release of data on the level of business confidence in Australia. Last month the index remained weak, despite the unexpected decline in the basic interest rate of the central bank of the state. According to a survey conducted by the National Australia Bank, the confidence index investors, businessmen and analysts in May was minus one point, as in the previous month. The negative value of the indicator means that the number of pessimists outnumber optimists. The greatest pessimism marked among mining companies in Australia. Recall that in May, the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low of 2.75%, with the objective to reduce the economy's dependence on the mining and energy sectors and spur growth in segments such as housing and retail.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.3300

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.5531

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair fell to Y96.47

At 14:00 GMT Britain will present data on changes in GDP from NIESR for May. At 23:50 GMT Japan will announce the change in the volume of orders for machinery and equipment in April.

11.06.2013 14:00


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