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20.06.2013 20:20

American focus: the European currency is trading down

The euro exchange rate rose slightly against the dollar, recovering from the lows, but in spite of this, is still trading lower.

Note that the earlier appreciation of the dollar was linked to yesterday's statement from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, who said that the central bank is prepared to reduce the volume of purchases of bonds this year and even suspend them in 2014, when the economy will show steady growth.

The current rise of the dollar also helped the U.S. data. First of all, it is worth noting the report from the National Association of Realtors, which showed that sales of existing homes in the U.S. in May to a seasonally adjusted rose 4.2% to 5.18 million homes per year compared with 4.97 million in April, reaching its highest level in more than three years. Economists predicted that sales of existing homes will rise to an annual rate of 5.01 million

Also helped to a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, which showed that in June, the business activity index rose to 12.5 vs. -5.2 in May. Economists had expected the index to rise to -0.4. Increase in the index was caused by a significant increase in selling and purchase prices, as well as new orders. At the same time, reducing component showed delivery times and inventories.

However, the dollar failed to hold its position after the data from the European Commission showed that consumer confidence in the euro area has grown significantly in the month of June, which further points to signs of recovery in the region.

According to the report, a preliminary index of consumer confidence in the euro zone rose this month to the level of -18.8, compared with -21.9 in the previous month. It is worth noting that many economists had expected a more modest increase of the index - to the level of -21.5. We also add that this figure shows growth for the seventh consecutive month. In addition, it is worth noting that the last value of the index was the strongest in more than a year.

The pound has recovered after falling against the U.S. dollar after data on retail sales in Britain. Retail sales in the UK in May strongly revived after the failure of April, as consumers are willing to use advertising campaigns supermarkets. The data shows that consumers are still willing to spend money, despite the pressure exerted on their budget weak wage growth and inflation. Recent figures may strengthen expectations that the economy continued to grow in the 2nd quarter. National Bureau of Statistics reported that in May retail sales rose by 2.1% compared with April and by 1.9% compared with the same period last year.

Add that support the currency has had a report from the Confederation of British Industry, which showed that activity in the month of June in the UK manufacturing sector remained subdued, as the total number of orders, including export, remained roughly close to their long-term averages. In addition, it was reported that the price expectations also little changed from eight-month low, which was recorded in May. The volume of output also remained largely unchanged from three months earlier, which again disappointed hopes for a strong acceleration in production.

Studies have also shown that some companies have lowered their expectations, though they still expect a modest increase in production over the next three months.

The report showed that 14% of firms reported that the total number of orders was much higher, while 32% of the decline, which made the balance of -18%, in line with the long-term average at 17%. In addition, it was reported that the balance for export orders amounted to 22%, which was the lowest level since January 2013.

The yen fell sharply against the U.S. dollar, which was related to yesterday's statement FOMC. The volume of the QE program is the same, but the statement looked like this: "Downside risks to the economic outlook and the labor market declined in the autumn." The market reacted to the fall in risk appetite, which led to the dollar's rally. In general, the statement sounded more optimistic about the economy, inflation is now less concerned about power, and the labor market is encouraging, that can bring the rate increase.

In addition, the decline contributed to a number of reports on the United States. The index of leading indicators rose 0.1% against the expected 0.2%, while sales of existing homes - by 4.2% against the forecast of +0.6%. We also add that the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing activity improved to 12.5 vs. expected -0.4.

20.06.2013 19:20

European stock close

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