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26.06.2013 14:15

European session: the dollar has increased significantly

Data

06:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey July 6.5 6.6 6.8

06:00 Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator May 1.46 1.46

06:45 France GDP, q/q (Finally) Quarter I -0.2% -0.2% -0.2%

06:45 France GDP, Y/Y Quarter I -0.4% -0.4% -0.4%

08:00 United Kingdom MPC Member Miles Speaks

09:30 United Kingdom BOE Financial Stability Report June


The dollar rose sharply against the euro, which has been associated with the speech by ECB President Draghi. During his speech, the lower house of parliament, Mario Draghi said that so far the Central Bank has made successful efforts to restore the European economy, but noted that monetary policy alone can not solve all the problems. HTA program has helped to restore the market, and accommodative monetary policy is also intended to support the growth, said Draghi, but the euro-zone governments need to continue to implement reforms in order to see further progress.

"If growth stops because the economy is not producing, or because of lost competitiveness, the Central Bank can not do anything about it," said Draghi. ECB President also called on the EU to increase efforts to create a banking union in the eurozone.

Add that contribute to the strengthening of the U.S. dollar expectations publication of U.S. data. Recall that at 12:30 GMT U.S. Department of Commerce shall provide summary data on the growth of the U.S. economy in the I quarter of 2013. The lion's share of analysts and experts agree that the growth of the U.S. economy in the period from January to April of this year to reach 2.4% in annual terms. Note that the current estimate of analysts is similar to the latest revised data from the U.S. Commerce Department. This suggests that the summary data that will be presented today, are not likely to differ from the forecast of analysts by more than 0.1% in either direction.

The Japanese yen rose against the dollar, although it retreated from highs. Since the market is now not so much for a pair of drivers from the Japanese side, riveted the attention of many to today's release of the U.S. GDP in the year, which will be a major catalyst for the couple.

Experts note that the subdued profitability of Japanese bonds recipe yen weakness, but because of the decision of FOMC last week, it seems that the events unfolding in this direction. Against this background, UBS economists left their forecast at 110 yen per dollar by the end of 2013.

Value of the pound fell sharply against the dollar, which has been associated with the publication of the report on the financial stability of the Bank of England, as well as comments from the members of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England, AD Miles, who said that the folding of quantitative easing should not have on economic growth and inflation, the same strong impact as purchase. Meanwhile, he added that the UK may require further stimulus. He also said that the central bank is not raised "bubbles"

Add that to his semi-annual report on the financial stability of the Bank of England warned borrowers and financial institutions over soaring rates. In addition, it was noted that the uncertain situation in the euro area may also impact on the economic outlook of the country.

According to the report, in the short term, "risks may manifest itself if the global long-term rates rise sharply from current historically low levels, or if credit spreads widen." In the long term, "risks may accrue if the hunt for yield increase, and the assets are undervalued."

Thus, the Central Bank asked for financial supervisors to evaluate the stability of banks in inflated interest rates. The results of the study will be presented in September. the bank also recommended to protect the financial system against Britain cyber attacks, which are becoming more and more "private and sophisticated."


EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair fell from $ 1.3012

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.5353

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair fell to Y97.31, but then stepped back to Y97.68


At 12:30 GMT the U.S. will release final data on changes in GDP, the GDP price index, an index of personal consumption expenditures index and core personal consumption expenditures in Q1. At 22:45 GMT New Zealand will announce the trade balance for May.

26.06.2013 14:00

Orders

Market Focus

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  • Industrial producer prices rose by 0.1% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.2% in the EU28
  • European Commission forecasts Euro Zone inflation will accelerate to 1.6 pct y/y in 2019 from 1.5 pct y/y seen in 2018
  • UK service providers signalled a modest rebound in business activity - Markit
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