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02.07.2013 20:20

American focus: the euro exchange rate against the dollar has declined markedly

The dollar rose significantly against the euro on data from the euro zone producer prices, which fell for the third month in succession. Producer prices were down 0.1% year on year, after falling 0.2% in April. Economists had forecast that prices will remain unchanged in May. On a monthly measurement of producer prices fell 0.3% in April after falling by 0.6%. But the rate of decline slightly above the consensus forecast of 0.2%.

Investors are waiting for the ECB meeting on Thursday. It is expected that the Central Bank will showcase a soft tone that will increase the downside risks for the pair. It is expected that Draghi will also mark the recent positive reports on the euro zone, indicating that the long-awaited recovery in the 2nd half of the year.

We also add that the dynamics of trading was influenced by the U.S. data. As it became known, the demand for manufactured goods in the U.S. rose in May, which was another sign that the company is stepping up spending after the sluggish winter.

Total production orders to a seasonally adjusted rose in May for $ 9.9 billion, or 2.1%, to $ 485 billion, compared with the previous month, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. Orders have been growing for three of the past four months.

The increase was due to growth in demand in the volatile aircraft sector, but demand for other items, such as computers, also rose, albeit slightly. Factory orders excluding transportation rose in May by 0.6%.

The growth of total orders matched economists' expectations. The report also showed that orders for durable goods - products intended for use longer than three years, such as cars and refrigerators - rose 3.7%, slightly stronger pace, as originally reported. This follows a similar increase in April.

However, a worrying sign was that orders for consumer goods were virtually unchanged, showing an increase of just 0.5% after falling in April and March. However, in a report on Tuesday also shown encouraging trends: companies replenishing their inventories in line with a slightly higher demand. And they're stepping up spending on equipment and software.

The British pound down on expectations the Bank of England, which will hold its first meeting led by M. Carney on Thursday. We also add that the impact of the currency had a statement of the representative of the Bank of England's Tucker, who said that the UK economy seems to be embarking on a path of sustained recovery, but high levels of household debt constrain growth. Recall that the UK economy grew by 0.3% in the first quarter and the British Chamber of Commerce on Tuesday announced its quarterly growth to 0.6% in April-June.

"We are now in a period when it seems that the economic recovery can be sustained," - said Paul Tucker, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England's financial stability. Tucker warned that "the road will be bumpy," referring to the heavy levels of debt in the UK, which hinder growth. "There is a lot of households and firms that have more or less reasonable levels of debt, their debt load is higher than anyone expected - said Tucker legislators. - Due to the household sector is a headwind, which constrains the recovery of demand."

The U.S. dollar rose against the yen, again exceeding the level of 100 Japanese yen for the first time since the beginning of June, as traders become more confident that the Fed will slow the pace of monetary stimulus.

Experts point out that this is an important week for the currency market. Important even today, when in the calendar of economic data are scheduled publications likely to affect the market, except at night catechumen solutions of the Reserve Bank of Australia, but the currencies exhibit significant changes.

Add that investors are slowly buying U.S. dollars on Friday before publication of employment data in the U.S.. It is worth noting that at the end of May month increase in the number of employed in non-agricultural sector exceeded expectations, an increase of 175,000, although the April figures were revised downward. Most companies in the private sector continue to increase the number of their employees, led by the professional sector, a sector of business services, leisure and hospitality industries. We add that the continued decline in employment in manufacturing and the public sector. We also note that, on average, the economy has added just under 190,000 jobs each month this year, although the February reading and overestimated the overall trend. At the same time, adding that the unemployment rate rose 0.1 percentage points to 7.6%, although this was entirely due to rising levels of labor force participation.

According to experts, the decline in unemployment will confirm that the U.S. economy is headed in the right direction and that the Fed is on the way to reduce the amount of asset purchases in September.

02.07.2013 19:20

European stock close

Market Focus

  • ECB's Weidmann says first ECB rate hike could follow the end of QE more closely than in the U.S
  • Industrial producer prices rose by 0.1% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.2% in the EU28
  • European Commission forecasts Euro Zone inflation will accelerate to 1.6 pct y/y in 2019 from 1.5 pct y/y seen in 2018
  • UK service providers signalled a modest rebound in business activity - Markit
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