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12.07.2013 14:16

European session: the U.S. currency strengthened

Data

01:30 Australia Home Loans May +0.8% +2.3% +1.8%

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Finally) May +2.0% +2.0% +1.9%

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (Finally) May -1.0% -1.1%

05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report July

09:00 Eurozone Industrial production, (MoM) May +0.4% -0.2% -0.3%

09:00 Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) May -0.6% -1.4% -1.3%


The EUR / USD fell sharply, approaching today to the lowest level yesterday. Note that the dynamics of trade have influenced the data for the euro area, as well as expectations of inflation data published in the United States. According to the median forecast of economists base value of the producer price index is likely to grow in June by 1.6%. It should be noted that the value is retained below the 2% target level of inflation the Fed.

Note that today's data from the Statistical Office of the European Union have shown that up to May, the euro zone industrial output fell markedly, thereby exceeded the forecasts of experts, which may indicate a continuation of the recession in the currency zone in the second quarter.

The report showed that in May, industrial output fell by 0.3% in April and 1.3% from May 2012. It is worth noting that according to the average forecasts of experts, industrial output had fallen by 0.2% for the month and 1.4% over the year.

The data also showed that the decline in industrial production in May was due to weak domestic demand and exports, as well as a sharp decline in production of durable consumer goods and capital goods. The decrease in production was recorded in most of the currency area, and even in Germany and France, as well as in Spain and Greece. However, was recorded a very sharp rise in Portugal, and more modest growth in Italy.

In general, the EU production fell by 0.6% from April, and decreased by 1.6% from May 2012.

The pound also fell sharply against the dollar, despite the positive manufacturing data in the construction industry. As it became known, the amount of production in this sector jumped in April, suggesting that the sector will contribute to economic growth in the 2nd quarter.

According to the data, production in the construction industry adjusted for seasonal variations in April increased by 4.6% compared with the previous month, and in May remained unchanged. Strong growth in April was provided by companies to carry out orders that have accumulated since March, when the weather was bad.

The relatively strong performance sector in April, followed adverse 1st quarter, when a decline in production in the construction sector has undermined economic growth. In the 1st quarter of production in the construction sector fell by 1.8%, limiting the growth of GDP of 0.3%, despite the acceleration of growth in the largest sector of the economy - the service sector.

Also, the data showed that, compared with the same period of the previous year, production in the construction sector in April fell by 2.2% in May - 4.8%. Such a sharp annual decline in production in May was mainly due to the fact that banks in May this year was one extra working day more than in May 2012.

The yen fell against the U.S. dollar. As it became known, the Bank of Japan expects a moderate increase in exports and industrial production as the economy recovers, according to the central bank's monthly report, published on Friday.

Meanwhile, data released today, which have been revised, showed that industrial production in Japan rose by 1.9% in May compared with the previous month, reflecting a steady increase in industrial activity due to the forces of domestic demand. Figure compared with an initial value increased by 2.0% after a 0.9% increase in April.

In addition, it was reported that the index of capacity utilization increased by 2.3% in May compared with the previous month - to 98.1.

On Thursday, the bank raised its assessment of the economy, saying, "The Japanese economy is beginning to recover at a moderate pace." The Bank used the word "recovery" for the first time since January 2011, two months before the deadly earthquake and tsunami in the island nation.


EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.3020

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.5081

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y99.70


At 12:30 GMT the U.S. producer price index will be released in June. At 13:55 GMT the United States will present the consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan in July. At 23:00 GMT New Zealand is to publish an index of housing prices from REINZ for June, as well as announce the change in the volume of home sales for June from REINZ.

12.07.2013 14:00

Orders

Market Focus

  • ECB's Weidmann says first ECB rate hike could follow the end of QE more closely than in the U.S
  • Industrial producer prices rose by 0.1% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.2% in the EU28
  • European Commission forecasts Euro Zone inflation will accelerate to 1.6 pct y/y in 2019 from 1.5 pct y/y seen in 2018
  • UK service providers signalled a modest rebound in business activity - Markit
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