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25.07.2013 14:15

European session: the pound declined significantly against the U.S. currency

Data

08:00 Eurozone M3 money supply, adjusted y/y June +2.9% +3.0% +2.3%

08:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate July 105.9 106.3 106.2

08:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment July 109.4 109.7 110.1

08:00 Germany IFO - Expectations July 102.5 102.5 102.4

08:30 United Kingdom GDP, q/q (Preliminary) Quarter II +0.3% +0.6% +0.6%

08:30 United Kingdom GDP, y/y (Preliminary) Quarter II +0.3% +1.4% +1.4%


The dollar rose sharply against the euro after the publication of data on Germany, but was unable to hold his position, and returned to their previous values, since the interest in this event went down.

As the results of studies that have been presented by the German Institute of Ifo, this month the level of confidence in the German business confidence rose again, registering with the third monthly increase in a row. It is worth noting that recent data has become another confirmation that the eurozone is heading towards recovery.

According to the report, the July index of business sentiment climbed to 106.2, up from 105.9 in June. We add that the latest reading was slightly below average forecasts of experts at the level of 106.3, but, nevertheless, was above the long-term average at around 101.

Experts point out that increasing the level of trust in Germany would be a relief for the euro zone after its largest economy in the 1st quarter, barely grew. Optimism among consumers and the growing confidence in the business community point to an acceleration in economic growth in the 2nd half of the year. According to the latest estimates of economists economic growth for the full year should reach 0.5%.

In addition, it was reported that the companies participating in the monthly surveys Ifo, were more satisfied with the current business conditions. The relevant sub-index rose in July to the level of 110.1, compared to 109.4 in June, as well as the experts' forecasts at 109.7. The data also showed that the index of business expectations fell slightly - to 102.4 from 102.5, while many experts expected a constant figure.

The pound dropped significantly against the dollar, which has been associated with the release of the report by Britain's GDP. The preliminary data that has been submitted by the Office for National Statistics, at the end of the second quarter of the UK economy grew by confirming with the forecasts of experts, which has helped to support manufacturing, construction and services sectors. It should be noted that recent data have raised hopes that the economic recovery may strengthen.

According to the report, in the last quarter GDP growth was 0.6%, compared with an increase of 0.3%. We add that the pace of growth is fully in line with expectations.

Meanwhile, it was reported that annualized GDP growth in the second quarter was 1.4%, compared with an increase of 0.3% in the first quarter, recording the largest increase since the first quarter of 2011. Note that the annual growth is also confirmed experts' opinion.

The largest contribution to GDP growth has been marked by the service sector, which expanded by 0.6% compared with the previous quarter. In addition, the data showed that the volume of construction rose by 0.9%, recovering from a fall of 1.8% in the first quarter, when production was at its lowest level since early 2001. Add that to GDP growth by 0.08 percentage points also helped to increase the production by 0.6%, with the growth of manufacturing output by 0.4%.

The cost of the New Zealand Dollar was higher against the U.S. dollar, which impacted on the decision by the RBNZ rates, and managing comments.

Chapter RBNZ Wheeler said the global outlook remains controversial, the eurozone remains in recession and shows signs of slowing growth in China and Australia, but a more recent positive economic data from the U.S. and Japan. In the global debt markets have become more cautious because of the expected release of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the policy of "quantitative easing."

In addition, managing the RBNZ said that economic growth in New Zealand rose, and although it varies, becomes more widespread across industries. Consumption is growing and reconstruction Kantenberi will be supported by a broad increase in activity in the construction industry, particularly in Auckland. This will support the overall activity and ultimately will reduce housing shortages.

Despite the fact that since May 2013 the foreign trade-weighted New Zealand dollar has declined, it remains high and will continue to be an obstacle for the tradable sectors, reducing export revenues and increasing demand for imports. Fiscal consolidation will reduce aggregate demand in the planned term.

Meanwhile, Managing RBNZ said that although the cessation of monetary stimulus is likely to be necessary in the future, we expect that the interest rate will remain unchanged until the end of the year.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.3164, and then went back up to $ 1.3215

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.5262

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair fell to Y99.61


At 12:30 GMT the United States will announce a change in orders for durable goods for June. At 13:00 GMT Belgium will release the index business sentiment in July. At 23:30 GMT Japan will present the consumer price index for June.



25.07.2013 14:00

Orders

Market Focus

  • ECB's Weidmann says first ECB rate hike could follow the end of QE more closely than in the U.S
  • Industrial producer prices rose by 0.1% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.2% in the EU28
  • European Commission forecasts Euro Zone inflation will accelerate to 1.6 pct y/y in 2019 from 1.5 pct y/y seen in 2018
  • UK service providers signalled a modest rebound in business activity - Markit
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