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05.08.2013 14:15

European session: the pound rose sharply on strong PMI data

Data

00:30 Australia MI Inflation Gauge, m/m July 0.0% +0.5%

00:30 Australia MI Inflation Gauge, y/y July +2.4% +2.7%

01:30 Australia Retail sales (MoM) June +0.2% Revised From +0.1% +0.4% 0.0%

01:30 Australia Retail Sales Y/Y June +2.3% +1.1%

01:45 China HSBC Services PMI July 51.3 51.3

07:50 France Services PMI (Finally) July 48.3 48.3 48.6

07:55 Germany Services PMI (Finally) July 52.5 52.5 51.3

08:00 Eurozone Services PMI (Finally) July 49.6 49.6 49.8

08:30 Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence August -12.6 9.8 -4.9

08:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Services July 56.9 57.4 60.2

09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) June +1.0% -0.6% -0.5%

09:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) June -0.1% -1.3% -0.9%

12:00 Canada Bank holiday


The dollar rose significantly against the euro, while restoring previously lost ground. Earlier, the dollar's decline was due to the release of strong data for the euro area.

As shown by the final results of studies that were presented to Markit, the index of business activity in the service sector rose slightly last month, but still remained below 50, indicating a contraction in activity.

According to the report, the July index of business activity in the services sector climbed to 49.8 points, compared with a preliminary reading at 49.6 and 48.3 in June. It is worth noting that many experts had expected the index to remain unchanged.

In addition, the data showed that an index based on a survey of executives in the manufacturing and services sectors, rose to 50.5 in July from 48.7 in June. This is the first reading above 50 points since January 2012, which was revised from earlier estimate last month at 50.4. The improvement was due to the production, which outweighed the slight reduction in the services sector.

But even strong PMI data had only a limited impact on the currency, as expectations have already been incorporated in the price. Now the attention of market participants focused on the publication of the index of business activity in the U.S. service sector.

Value of the pound against the dollar has increased significantly, which has helped to publish a report on Britain. According to the data, the July PMI index in the services sector rose to 60.2 from 56.9 in June, reaching its highest level since December 2006. It is worth noting that according to the average estimate of economists, the index had only grow to 57.4 points. We also add that the index is above 50.0 is for seven consecutive months, showing a continuous increase during this period. Last growth was underpinned by the rapid growth in sales volumes, as market conditions continued to strengthen.

Commenting on the latest figures, Paul Smith, senior economist at Markit said that the strong performance in the UK service sector were supported by improvements in the construction and production, and the recovery is gaining momentum, which may point to further growth throughout the summer.

In addition, the economist added that despite a substantial increase in the period of one month, the forward-looking elements of the survey point to a further strengthening of the gross domestic product in the third quarter.

The yen rose significantly against the U.S. currency, which was associated with the release of Chinese data. As the results of recent studies, which were presented on Saturday, the China Association of Logistics and Purchasing (Culzean) and the Research Center service industry under the State Statistical Bureau of China, at the end of last month the index of non-manufacturing activity rose slightly, while continuing its expansion.

According to the report, in July, the index of purchasing managers in non-manufacturing sector in the country amounted to 54.1 points, 0.2 percentage points higher than the June figure.

Recall that PMI - an indicator showing the level of activity in this case, the non-manufacturing sector. The indicator above 50 indicates growth in the sector, while a drop below this level indicates that there is a reduction.

We also add that PMI PMI in the non-manufacturing sector in the country has increased along with the PMI index in the manufacturing sector, which, according to previously published data, rose to 50.3 points in July from 50.1 points in June.


EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.3252

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.5378, and then decreased slightly

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair fell to Y98.27, but later recovered to Y98.58


At 14:00 GMT the United States will Composite Index ISM non-manufacturing activity in July. At 23:01 GMT Britain will present the BRC Retail Sales Monitor for July. At 23:30 GMT Australia is to publish an index of activity in the service sector of the AiG in July.



05.08.2013 14:01

Orders

Market Focus

  • ECB's Weidmann says first ECB rate hike could follow the end of QE more closely than in the U.S
  • Industrial producer prices rose by 0.1% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.2% in the EU28
  • European Commission forecasts Euro Zone inflation will accelerate to 1.6 pct y/y in 2019 from 1.5 pct y/y seen in 2018
  • UK service providers signalled a modest rebound in business activity - Markit
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