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Market panorama. 26 Červen 2017

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I. Market focus:

26/06/2017

The new week in the financial markets began quite calmly: in the forex market, the main currency pairs were traded in relatively narrow ranges; the main stock indices of the Asian and Pacific region showed moderate growth; in the commodity market, oil prices slightly corrected after losses suffered last week, but overall continued to remain under pressure.

Any important reports that could cause strong movements in the markets did not come in at the beginning of the European session. Today's session is not to be very busy with scheduled events and macroeconomic data releases, but some of them may cause a significant increase in volatility. In the morning, such data will be the Ifo report on sentiment in the business circles of Germany (08:00 GMT). In the afternoon, the U.S. statistics on durable goods orders (12:45 GMT) will be published. Elsewhere, the attention should be paid to the report on trade balance of New Zealand (22:45 GMT). Another important event may be comments by the President of the ECB Mario Draghi at 17:30 GMT, who will make an opening speech at the ECB Forum on central banking in Portugal.

 

II. The market highlights are:

  • Statistics Canada reported on Friday that the country’s consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.1 percent m-o-m in May, following a 0.4 percent m-o-m increase in April. On the y-o-y basis, Canada’s inflation rate advanced 1.3 percent last month after gaining 1.6 percent in the prior month. According to the report, prices grew in six of the eight major components in the 12 months to May, with the shelter (+1.9 percent y-o-y) and transportation (+2.2 percent y-o-y) indexes contributing the most to the y-o-y rise in the CPI. This increase in the CPI was moderated by declines in the clothing and footwear index (-1.5 percent y-o-y) and the food index (-0.1 percent y-o-y). Economists had predicted inflation would increase 0.2 percent m-o-m and 1.5 percent y-o-y in May. The closely watched the Bank of Canada's core index grew 0.9 percent y-o-y in May after gaining 1.1 percent in April. That was the lowest rate since February of 2011.

  • Preliminary data released by IHS Markit on Friday showed that the U.S. private sector recorded a further expansion of business activity in June, but there was a loss of momentum since May. According to the report, the Markit flash services purchasing manager's index (PMI) fell to 53.0 this month from 53.6 in May, marking the slowest upturn in service sector output since March. Economists had expected the reading to inch up to 53.7. A reading above 50 signals an expansion in activity, while a reading below this level signals a contraction. At the same time, the Markit flash manufacturing purchasing manager's index (PMI) eased to 52.1 in June from 52.7 in May, recording the slowest pace since September 2016. Economists had expected the reading to increase to 53. As a result, IHS Markit Flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index came in at 53 in June, down from 53.6 in May, pointing to the slowest upturn in business activity for three months. Commenting on the flash PMI data Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said: “The average expansion seen in the second quarter is down on that seen in the first three months of the year, indicating a slowing in the underlying pace of economic growth. While official GDP data are expected to turn higher in the second quarter after an especially weak start to the year (our recent GDP tracker based on various official and survey data points to 3.0% growth), the relatively subdued PMI readings suggest there are some downside risks to the extent to which GDP will rebound. Historical comparisons of the PMI against GDP indicates that the PMI is running at a level broadly consistent with the economy growing at a 0.4% quarterly rate (1.5% annualized) in the second quarter, or just over 2% once allowance is made for residual seasonality in the official GDP data.”

  • The U.S. Commerce Department reported on Friday the sales of new single-family homes increased 2.9 percent m-o-m to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 610,000 units in May. Economists had forecast a sales pace of 583,000 last month. April’s sales pace was revised sharply up to 593,000 units from the originally reported 569,000 units. In y-o-y terms, new home sales recorded growth of 8.9 percent.

  • President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis James Bullard during his speech Friday at the annual conference of the Illinois Bankers Association in Nashville, Tenn, said that current data readings suggest the Fed could wait and see how the economy develops before making any further adjustments to its rates. He noted that the U.S. economy remained in a low-growth, low-inflation, low-interest-rate regime and that the current level of the policy rate was likely to be appropriate for this regime over the forecast horizon. “Many future developments could impact this policy path, but the Fed does not need to pre-empt any of them,” Mr. Bullard said. While discussing inflation, he noted that “Recent inflation data have surprised to the downside and call into question the idea that U.S. inflation is reliably returning toward target”. He also added that “Even if the U.S. unemployment rate declines substantially further, the effects on U.S. inflation are likely to be small.”

  • President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Loretta Mester said Friday she was confident of a further acceleration of inflation towards the Fed target 2 percent target, so she continued to support another increase in rates this year. Mester noted that the FOMC’s latest median forecast for three rate hikes this year was consistent with her outlook. "I still think that the economy looks good, the underlying fundamentals look pretty strong, the labor markets look strong," she said. Mester added "I don't think there's an immediate need to do something - I don't think we're behind the curve - but I think this gradual reduction in the amount of accommodation makes sense to me. It seems like that path has proven to be about right, and I don't see anything to fundamentally undermine that."

  • The weekly report from Baker Hughes, which was released Friday, showed that the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil rose by 11 to 758 during the week ended June 23, the highest level since April 10, 2015. That marked a 23rd weekly increase in a row. Meanwhile, the total active U.S. rig count, which includes oil and natural-gas rigs, rose by eight to 941, as the gas-rig count fell by three to 183.

 

III. Market Situation
Currency Market
The currency pair EUR/USD consolidated in a narrow range, as investors awaited new catalysts. Meanwhile, market participants continued to analyze the latest comments by the Fed’s officials, hoping to glean clues on the way forward for U.S. monetary policy. Given the recently made statements, the central bank is seen to take a wait-and-see position to understand how the economic situation will develop. Recall, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Friday that current data readings suggest the regulator could wait and see how the economy develops before making any further adjustments to its rates. He noted that the U.S. economy remained in a low-growth, low-inflation, low-interest-rate regime and that the current level of the policy rate was likely to be appropriate for this regime over the forecast horizon. Meanwhile, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester stated she was confident of a further acceleration of inflation towards the Fed target 2 percent target, so she continued to support another increase in rates this year. Mester noted that the FOMC’s latest median forecast for three rate hikes this year was consistent with her outlook. The Fed-funds futures currently show that the probability the regulator will increase its benchmark fed funds rate again this year is estimated at 50.6 percent compared with 45.6 percent a week ago (June 19). Today, the focus will be on  German data on business sentiment, the U.S. statistics on durable goods orders and the speech of the ECB’s President Mario Draghi. Resistance level - $1.1212 (high of June 19). Support level - $1.1118 (low of June 20).

The currency pair GBP/USD traded slightly higher, near the high of June 20. With an empty economic calendar in the UK ahead, investors will focus on the dynamics of the U.S. currency and the general market sentiment toward risky assets. Market participants will also continue to monitor the news about the future coalition between the Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and the Conservative Party, which would allow UK’s Prime Minister Theresa May to form a minority government. Later this week, attention will shift to the final data on UK’s GDP and business investment for the first quarter. It is expected that the Office of National Statistics (ONS) will revise GDP growth for the first quarter upward from the second estimate, reporting a more favorable economic situation. Resistance level - $1.2817 (high of June 14). Support level - $1.2589 (low of June 21).

The currency pair AUD/USD continued to trade in a narrow range, due to the lack of new drivers, which could "revive" the pair. Experts note that the growth of the U.S. dollar is held back by investors' doubts whether the Fed will hike its rates for the third time this year amid a weakening inflation. Market participants also await reports on manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs from China, Australia's largest trading partner. Both reports will be released on Friday. The improvement of the readings can provide strong support to the Australian dollar. Resistance level - AUD0.7634 (high of June 14). Support level - AUD0.7518 (low of June 9).

The currency pair USD/JPY trading near the opening level. The pair’s performance was slightly impacted by the May report on the Japanese producer prices and statements of the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The BoJ reported that producer prices in Japan rose 0.7 percent y-o-y in May, following an upwardly revised 0.8 percent y-o-y increase in April (originally a 0.7 percent y-o-y gain). That was in line with economists’ expectations. On a monthly basis, however, producer prices edged down 0.1 percent. The Japanese central bank also released the summary of opinions at its latest monetary policy meeting (June 15 and 16). The summary revealed the BoJ upgraded its assessment of private consumption for the first time in six months, signaling its confidence in an export-driven economic recovery that is gaining momentum. “It is projected that fiscal 2017 will be a year in which, due to a labor shortage amid an upturn in overseas economies, an improvement in labor productivity and a corresponding increase in real wages can be realized, particularly at small and medium-sized firms. Private consumption is expected to turn to a moderate increasing trend, and a virtuous cycle in which firms can pass on their wage increases to a rise in retail prices is likely to be in place”, the bank noted. Resistance level - Y112.10 (high of May 24). Support level - Y110.64 (low of June 16).

 

Stock Market

Index

Value

Change

S&P

2,438.30

+0.16%

Dow

21,394.76

-0.01%

NASDAQ

6,265.25

+0.46%

Nikkei

20,153.35

+0.10%

Hang Seng

25,861.71

+0.75%

Shanghai

3,186.05

+0.89%

S&P/ASX

5,720.20

+0.08%


U.S. stock indexes closed mainly higher, supported by growth in technology, energy, and industrials sectors. On the macroeconomic front, preliminary data released by IHS Markit revealed that the U.S. private sector recorded a further expansion of business activity in June, but there was a loss of momentum since May. According to the report, the Markit flash services purchasing manager's index (PMI) fell to 53.0 this month from 53.6 in May, marking the slowest upturn in service sector output since March. Economists had expected the reading to inch up to 53.7. A reading above 50 signals an expansion in activity, while a reading below this level signals a contraction. At the same time, the Markit flash manufacturing purchasing manager's index (PMI) eased to 52.1 in June from 52.7 in May, recording the slowest pace since September 2016. Economists had expected the reading to increase to 53. As a result, IHS Markit Flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index came in at 53 in June, down from 53.6 in May, pointing to the slowest upturn in business activity for three months. Meanwhile, the U.S. Commerce Department reported the sales of new single-family homes increased 2.9 percent m-o-m to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 610,000 units in May. Economists had forecast a sales pace of 583,000 last month. April’s sales pace was revised sharply up to 593,000 units from the originally reported 569,000 units. In y-o-y terms, new home sales recorded growth of 8.9 percent.

Asian stock indexes closed higher on Monday amid stabilizing commodities prices. The Japanese stock index rose, tracking the NASDAQ’s strong performance on Friday, underpinned by the strength in the top-weighted technology sector names, many of which are closely related to Japanese suppliers and developers. Meanwhile, the fact the yen weakened against the dollar provided support to the Japanese export-oriented companies.

European stock indexes are expected to trade mixed in the morning trading session.

 

Bond Market
Yields of US 10-year notes hold at 2.15% (0 basis points)
Yields of German 10-year bonds hold at 0.26% (0 basis points)
Yields of UK 10-year gilts hold at 1.04% (+2 basis points)

Commodity Markets
Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) futures traded higher. Crude oil for delivery in August settled at $43.48 (+1.09%). The crude oil prices rose, supported by the expectations the big oil companies would reduce their CapEx and investment as oil prices remain weak. However, the further growth was limited due to the latest report from Baker Hughes, which showed that the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil rose by 11 to 758 during the week ended June 23, the highest level since April 10, 2015. That marked a 23rd weekly increase in a row. Meanwhile, the total active U.S. rig count, which includes oil and natural-gas rigs, rose by eight to 941, as the gas rig count fell by three to 183.

Gold traded at $1254.20 (-0.19%). Gold prices fell, as geopolitical uncertainty lowered, reducing the demand for safe-haven assets. Concerns for Brexit diminished after the UK’s Brexit Secretary David Davis had said he was optimistic about the upcoming talks on Britain's withdrawal from the EU. Meanwhile, market participants are awaiting the U.S. inflation data, which can help clarify the Fed's further policy actions.

IV. The most important news that are expected (time GMT0)

 

08:00

Germany

IFO - Business Climate

08:00

Germany

IFO - Current Assessment

08:00

Germany

IFO - Expectations

12:30

U.S.

Chicago Federal National Activity Index

12:30

U.S.

Durable Goods Orders

17:30

Eurozone

ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks

22:45

New Zealand

Trade Balance

 

Zaměřeno na trh

  • U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.5 million barrels from the previous week
  • Canada: Retail Sales, m/m, November 0.2% (forecast 0.5%)
  • U.S.: Nonfarm Payrolls, January 227 (forecast 175)
  • Eurozone: Consumer Confidence, January -4.9
Červen 2017
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  • 2012
  • 2011
  • 2010
  • 2009
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  • 2005
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Kotace

Veškerý předložený materiál je marketingová komunikace určená výhradně pro informační účely, spoléhání se na něj může vést ke ztrátě. Minulé výsledky nejsou spolehlivým indikátorem výsledků budoucích. Přečtěte si prosím naší úplnou zprávu o právních omezeních.

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